How Harsh Will Winter Be?

Photo provided by Rampage photographer Elei Haynes.

With a somewhat harsh winter behind us from last year, what can we expect going into the colder months this year?

The Farmers’ Almanac, an annual publication released since 1792, predicts that the country will experience a normal to mild winter season overall. However, a few areas, including the Appalachian region, can expect “colder than average conditions.” Greater amounts of snow will also be in store for Appalachia.

But how accurate is the Farmer’s Almanac, especially when weighed against other predictions? This year, the Farmer’s Almanac disagrees with NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), a highly rated national weather agency.

NOAA predicts a milder than usual winter for the country, with the southern part of the country – which includes all of Virginia – staying warmer and drier this winter.

Ironically, both sources cite the same reason for a milder winter for the country: a “fading La Niña” (a climate pattern). But they disagree when it comes to the Appalachian region because the Farmer’s Almanac suggests that “The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (sequence of wind changes) can affect polar vortex position (ever-present presence of cold air present on the globe), sending cold air southward.”

So, depending on who you trust, we can expect vastly different outcomes for this winter. I know some of us will be on the edge of our seats to see which prediction is correct.